Thursday, April 7, 2016

Monetary Policy

Conducted by the FED; comprised of 3 tools

Reserve Requirement

  • Small % of deposit in bank, rest is loaned out (Fractional Reserve Banking)
    • Inc. in MS -> Inc. in amt of $ held in bank deposits
    • Recession - Dec. RR -> More ER; More loans; MS up, interest rates down; AD up (Easy)
    • Inflation - Inc. RR -> Less ER; Less loans; MS down, interest rates up; AD down (Tight)

Discount Rate

  • Interest rate FED charges to banks
    • MS up needs decrease in Dis. Rate (Easy)
    • MS down needs increase in Dis. Rate (Tight)

Open Market Op

  • FED buys/sells bonds (securities)
    • MS up needs buy bonds (easy)
    • MS down needs sell bonds (tight)

Easy monetary policy: Buy Bonds; Decrease Dis. R & RR

Loans increase; AD up; GDP up; MS up; Interest rates down

Tight monetary policy: Sell Bonds; Increase Dis. R & RR

Loans decrease; AD down; GDP down; MS down; Interest rates up

  • Fed Fund Rate - FDIC banks loan each other overnight funds (Opposite of Dis. Rate)
  • Prime Rate - Interest rate banks give to most credit worthy customers 

Countercyclical Policies: Keynesian Fiscal Policy vs. Monetary Policy

In the early 21st century, here in the USA, an efficient, "full employment" economy will probably have:
  • Annual unemployment rate 4%
  • Annual inflation rate 4%
If the economy goes into a recession:
  • The real GDP drops for at least 6 months
  • Unemployment rate increases to 6% or more
  • Inflation rate decreases to 2% or less
If Congress enacts Keynesian Fiscal Policies to attempt to slow/stop the recession, then:
  • The policy will try to improve C or G (parts of AD)
  • Congress will decrease federal taxes
  • Congress will increase job and spending programs
  • The federal budget will probably create a deficit
  • Due to changes in Money Demand, interest rates will increase (Crowding out might occur, but Keynesians don't care)
If the Federal Reserve employs Monetary Policy options to slow/stop the recession, then: 
  • The policy will target improvement in Ig (part of AD)
  • The Fed will target a lower Fed Fund Rate
  • The Fed can lower the discount rate
  • The Fed can buy bonds (Open Market Operations)
  • The Fed can (theoretically) lower the reserve requirement, but probably won't because it is too complex for the banks.
  • These Fed policies will lower the interest rates through changes in the Money Supply
  • These options should increase Ig
If the economy suffers from too much demand-pull inflation or cost-push inflation, then:
  • The unemployment rate will go to 4% or less 
  • The inflation rate will probably go to 4% or more
If Congress enacts Keynesian Fiscal Policies to attempt to slow/stop the inflation problems, then: 
  • The policy will try to decrease C or G (parts ofAD)
  • Congress will increase federal taxes
  • Congress will decrease job and spending programs
  • The federal budget will probably create a surplus
  • Due to changes in Money Demand, interest rates will decrease
If the Federal Reserve employs Monetary Policy options to slow/stop the inflation problems, then:
  • The policy will target decreases in Ig (part of AD)
  • The Fed will target a higher Fed Fund Rate
  • The Fed can increase the discount rate
  • The Fed can sell bonds (Open Market Operations)
  • The Fed can (theoretically) raise the reserve requirement, but probably won't because it is too complex for banks
  • These Fed policies will raise the interest rates through changes in the Money Supply
  • These options should decrease Ig



Graphs and Banking Systems

Demand Graph

  • Demand for money increase inverse w/nominal interest rate and quantity of money (Q decreases, I increases and vice versa)
  • Shifters: Change in
    • PL
    • Income
    • in taxation after investment

Money Supply

  • Affects AD when increased: -> r down, Ig up, AD up (Vertical)
  • Decreases - Goes Left: MS down, r up, Ig down, AD down

Financial Sector

  • Fin. Assets - Stocks and bonds provide expected future benefits
    • Benefits owner from issuer of asset meeting certain obligations
  • Fin. Liabilities - Incurred by issuer of fin. asset to stand behind issued asset
  • Interest Rate - $ paid to use fin. asset
  • Stocks - Fin. asset that represent ownership in a company
  • Bonds - Promise to pay $ and interest in the future

Banks

  • Fin. Intermediary - use liquid assets to fund investments of borrowers -> Fractional Reserve Banking
    • Liquid assets include currency in bank vaults and bank reserves
  • Banks create money by lending out deposits that are used multiple times
  • When a customer deposits cash or withdraws cash from their demand deposit account, it has NO EFFECT ON THE MONEY SUPPLY
    • It only changes...
      • The composition of money
      • Excess Reserves
      • Required Reserves
  • Changes in Money Supply for....
    • Single Bank
      • Loan money from ER
    • Banking System
      • ER x Money multiplier (1/RR) -> Total Money Supply
  • When the FED buys or sells bonds, ER is created

Basic Accounting Review

  • T-Account (Balance Sheet) - Lists assets and liabilities
  • Assets (Amounts owned) - Items claimed legally by bank; use of funds by fin. intermediary
    • Included in assets
      • Required Reserves - % of DD in vault
      • Excess Reserves - Remaining % of DD used for loans
      • Property - Statement of a bank's property values
      • Securities or Bonds - Previously purchased bonds held by the banks as investments
      • Loans - Previously loaned funds now owed back to the bank
  • Liabilities (Amounts owed) - Legal claims against a bank; sources of funds.
    • Included in liabilities
      • Demand Deposits - Cash deposits from the public to the bank
        • Part of MS if from person's cash holdings
        • Becomes new $ if from a bond -> MS up
      • Owner's equity or stock shares - Values of the bank stocks as held by the public
  • DD = RR + ER

Federal Reserve Banks

  • Functions
    1. Uses paper $
    2. Set reserve requirement and holds bank reserves
    3. Lends $ to banks and charges interest
    4. Check-clear service for banks
    5. Personal bank for government
    6. Supervises member banks
    7. Controls money supply in the  economy
  • Reserve Requirement - Fed needs banks to always have $ to meet demand
    • Amount = Reserve Ratio - % of DD locked to bank

Scenario 1

A private citizen takes cash that they possess and put it into a bank account
  • The cash placed into the bank is already part of the money supply
  • The deposit is counted as a bank liability
  • A % must be placed into required reserve
  • The remainder is placed into excess reserve
  • The bank will want to lend all of the ER, if possible
  • The amount in ER is multiplied by the monetary multiplier
  • This will be assumed to become new loans in the banking system
  • This will be counted as the change in money supply

Scenario 2

  • The Fed buys bonds back from the public
  • The public now has new cash
  • This new cash is new loans
  • Assume that the public puts the cash into demand deposits
  • A set percentage is placed into required reserve
  • The remainder becomes excess reserve
  • Excess reserve is multiplied by the money multiplier (1/RR)
  • This amount becomes new loans and is new money supply
  • The total change in money supply is the amount of demand deposits plus the new loan amounts

Scenario 3

  • The Fed buys bonds back from the member banks
  • The banks now have new ER
  • No money is needed to be placed in RR, since this is not owed to the public
  • All of these ER are multiplied by the monetary multiplier
  • This amount becomes new loans
  • This amount is the change in the money supply

Unit 4 - Money

Uses of Money

  • Medium of Exchange - Trade or barter
  • Unit of Account - Estimate economic worth in exchange process
  • Store of Money - Money holds value over period of time; products do not.

Types of Money

  • Commodity Money - Value from material type from which it was made.
    • Ex: Gold coins, silver
  • Representative Money - Paper money that represents tangible things which gives value
    • Ex: IOU
  • Fiat Money - Value declared by government 
    • Ex: U.S.  Money

Characteristics of Money 

  • Portable
  • Durable
  • Uniform
  • Scarce
  • Acceptable
  • Divisible

Money Supply

  • M1 Money = Currency (Cash and coins); Checkable deposits/accounts; traveler's checks
    • 75% of money; most liquid (convertible to cash)
  • M2 Money = M1 money + Savings Account; deposits held by foreign banks
    • Not as liquid
  • M3 Money = M2 money + Certificate of Deposit (CD) 
    • Early Penalty if drawn

Time Value

Is $ worth more today or tomorrow? TOMORROW

  • Because opportunity cost and inflation -> charge and pay interest
  • Simple Interest Formula = V = (1+P)^n x P
  • Compound Interest Fornula = V = (1+(r/k))^(nk) x P
    • V=Future value of $
    • P = Present value of $
    • r = Real interest rate as decimal
    • n = years
    • k = # of times interest is credited per year.